|
|
|
| THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE ALLOMETRIC GROWTH OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING MARKET: A CASE OF YANGTZE RIVER DELTA |
| YIN Shang-gang1,2, YANG Shan1,2, ZHU Yi-heng1,2 |
1. School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Housing has an important social stability function, and the relationship between its market development and economic growth is the key to achieving higher-quality urban development and smoothing the domestic cycle. Using spatial variogram, allometric growth model and enhanced regression tree model to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and evolution mechanism of the three in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2018. The results show that: 1) The spatial patterns of urban economic scale, residential prices, and residential rental in the Yangtze River Delta region have strong stability, showing a "one-pole multi-core" pattern. 2) In terms of vertical and horizontal heterogeneous rates, economic scale-residential prices and economic scale-residential rents are both dominated by negative allometric growth, the former's allometric growth coefficient is much higher than the latter. 3) Among the factors that affect the allometric growth of the three, technological development level, financial investment level, urban population scale, facility supply level, industrial development level and urban-rural income gap are the leading factors for the allometric growth between economic scale and housing market.
|
|
Received: 16 April 2021
|
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
何青,钱宗鑫,郭俊杰.房地产驱动了中国经济周期吗?[J].经济研究,2015,50(12):41-53.[He Qing, Qian Zongxin, Guo Junjie.House prices and business cycle in China:A DSGE analysis[J].Economic Research Journal, 2015,50(12):41-53.]
|
| [2] |
张传勇.劳动力流动、房价上涨与城市经济收敛——长三角的实证分析[J].产业经济研究, 2016,15(3):82-90.[Zhang Chuanyong.Labor mobility, housing prices and urban economic convergence:Evidence from cities in Yangtze River Delta[J].Industrial Economics Research, 2016,15(3):82-90.]
|
| [3] |
王弟海,管文杰,赵占波.土地和住房供给对房价变动和经济增长的影响——兼论我国房价居高不下持续上涨的原因[J].金融研究,2015,58(1):50-67.[Wang Dihai, Guan Wenjie, Zhao Zhanbo.The supply land, house price and economic growth[J].Journal of Financial Research, 2015,58(1):50-67.]
|
| [4] |
邵朝对,苏丹妮,邓宏图.房价、土地财政与城市集聚特征:中国式城市发展之路[J].管理世界,2016,32(2):19-31,187.[Shao Chaodui,Su Danni, Deng Hongtu.Housing prices, land finance and city agglomeration characteristics the road of China's city development[J].Management World, 2016,32(2):19-31,187.]
|
| [5] |
黄禹铭.中国城市住房价格增长的空间差异及其影响机制[J].经济地理,2019,39(12):88-95.[Huang Yuming.Spatial differentiation of housing price growth in China and its impact mechanism[J].Economic Geography, 2019,39(12):88-95.]
|
| [6] |
张清勇,郑环环.中国住宅投资引领经济增长吗?[J].经济研究,2012,47(2):67-79.[Zhang Qingyong, Zheng Huanhuan.Does housing investment lead economic growth in China?[J].Economic Research Journal, 2012,47(2):67-79.]
|
| [7] |
尹上岗,杨山,陈艳如,等.长三角房价收入比时空演变格局及收敛性研究[J].地理研究, 2020,39(11):2521-2536.[Yin Shanggang,Yang Shan, Chen Yanru, et al.Spatial-temporal evolution patterns and convergence analysis housing price-to-income ratio in Yangtze River Delta[J].Geographical Research, 2020,39(11):2521-2536.]
|
| [8] |
原鹏飞,冯蕾.经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究[J].经济研究,2014,49(9):77-90.[Yuan Pengfei, Feng Lei.Research of housing price rising effects based on DCGE:Economic growth, income distribution and wealth gap widening[J].Economic Research Journal, 2014,49(9):77-90.]
|
| [9] |
陈斌开,金箫,欧阳涤非.住房价格、资源错配与中国工业企业生产率[J].世界经济,2015,38(4):77-98.[Chen Binkai, Jin Xiao, Ouyang Difei.Housing price, mismatch of resources and productivity of China's industrial enterprises[J].The Journal of World Economy, 2015,38(4):77-98.]
|
| [10] |
杨咸月,朱辉.经济转型视野的"去库存"与房地产市场稳健性[J].改革,2017,30(1):76-84.[Yang Xianyue, Zhu Hui.Destocking in the perspective of economic transition and the robustness of the real estate market[J].Reform, 2017,30(1):76-84.]
|
| [11] |
李汝资,刘耀彬,王文刚,等.中国城市土地财政扩张及对经济效率影响路径[J].地理学报, 2020,75(10):2126-2145.[Li Ruzi, Liu Yaobin, Wang Wengang, et al.China's urban land finance expansion and the transmission routes to economic efficiency[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(10):2126-2145.]
|
| [12] |
陈创练,戴明晓.货币政策、杠杆周期与房地产市场价格波动[J].经济研究,2018,53(9):52-67.[Chen Chuanglian, Dai Mingxiao.Monetary policy, leverage cycle and house price fluctuation[J].Economic Research Journal, 2018,53(9):52-67.]
|
| [13] |
司登奎,李小林,葛新宇.基于房价波动的银行风险承担:理论分析与经验研究[J].统计研究,2019,36(12):27-39.[Si Dengkui, Li Xiaolin, Ge Xinyu.Band risk exposure based on house price fluctuation:Theoretical analysis and empirical research[J].Statistical Research, 2019,36(12):27-39.]
|
| [14] |
方晓萍,丁四保.中国城市住房价格的地理扩散及其区域外部性问题[J].地理科学,2012,32(2):143-148.[Fang Xiaoping, Ding Sibao.Geographical spread of urban house price in China and its regional externality[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(2):143-148.]
|
| [15] |
张平,张鹏鹏.房价、劳动力异质性与产业结构升级[J].当代经济科学,2016,38(2):87-93,127.[Zhang Ping, Zhang Pengpeng.House price, labor heterogeneity and industrial structure upgrading[J].Modern Economic Science, 2016,38(2):87-93,127.]
|
| [16] |
黄玉屏,周建军,尚晓彤.我国房价上涨对省域人均收入差距的影响分析[J].经济地理,2018,38(10):29-35,45.[Huang Yuping, Zhou Jianjun, Shang Xiaotong.Analysis of the impact of China's housing price rise on the per capita income gap of the province[J].Economic Geography, 2018,38(10):29-35,45.]
|
| [17] |
朱恺容,李培,谢贞发.房地产限购政策的有效性及外部性评估[J].财贸经济,2019,40(2):147-160.[Zhu Kairong, Li Pei, Xie Zhenfa.On the effectiveness and externalities of the home purchase restriction policy in China[J].Finance and Trade Economics, 2019,40(2):147-160.]
|
| [18] |
李瑶瑶,朱道林,赵江萌,等.政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响[J].资源科学,2019,41(6):1059-1069.[Li Yaoyao, Zhu Daolin, Zhao Jiangmeng, et al.Impact of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of residential land price[J].Resources Science, 2019,41(6):1059-1069.]
|
| [19] |
潘海峰,张定胜.信贷约束、房价与经济增长关联性及空间溢出效应——基于省域面板数据的空间计量[J].中央财经大学学报,2018,38(11):82-95.[Pan Haifeng, Zhang Dingsheng.Research on the relevance and spatial spillover effects of credit constraints,house prices and economic growth:Evidence from provincial panel data based on spatial econometric analysis[J].Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics, 2018,38(11):82-95.]
|
| [20] |
Brzezicka J, Wisniewski R, Figurska M.Disequilibrium in the real estate market:Evidence from Poland[J].Land Use Policy, 2018,78:515-531.
|
| [21] |
Geltner D, Kumar A, Van de Minne A M.Riskiness of real estate development:A perspective from urban economics and option value theory[J].Real Estate Economics, 2018,48(2):406-445.
|
| [22] |
Plantinga A J, Détang-D C, Hunt G L, et al.Housing prices and inter-urban migration[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43(2):296-306.
|
| [23] |
Costello G, Leishman C, Rowley S, et al.Drivers of spatial change in urban housing submarkets[J].Geographical Journal, 2019,185(4):432-446.
|
| [24] |
Hofman A, Aalbers M B.A finance-and real estate-driven regime in the United Kingdom[J].Geoforum, 2019,100:89-100.
|
| [25] |
Liao Wenchi, Zhao Daxuan, Sing T F.Risk attitude and housing wealth effect[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2014,48(3):467-491.
|
| [26] |
Lee Y.An allometric analysis of the US urban system:1960-1980[J].Environment and Planning A, 1989,21(4):463-476.
|
| [27] |
Batty M, Carvalho R, Hudson S A, et al.Scaling and allometry in the building geometries of Greater London[J].The European Physical Journal B, 2008,63(3):303-314.
|
| [28] |
龙玉清,陈彦光.基于灯光数据的京津冀城市多标度异速分析[J].地理科学进展,2019,38(1):88-100.[Long Yuqing, Chen Yanguang.Multi-scaling allometric analysis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system based on nighttime light data[J].Progress in Geography, 2019,38(1):88-100.]
|
| [29] |
王成新,王波涛,王翔宇.基于结构视角的中国人口城市化与土地城市化异速增长研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(8):135-141.[Wang Chengxin, Wang Botao, Wang Xiangyu.Study on population urbanization and land urbanization allometric growth in China based on the structure[J].China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016,26(8):135-141.]
|
| [30] |
Chen Yanguang.The mathematical relationship between Zipf's law and the hierarchical scaling law[J].Physica A, 2012,391(11):3285-3299.
|
| [31] |
李在军,管卫华,臧磊,等.江苏省产业结构的空间格局演变及其动力机制分析[J].经济地理, 2013,33(8):79-85.[Li Zaijun, Guan Weihua, Zang Lei, et al.The spatial pattern dynamics of industry structure and mechanisms analysis in Jiangsu Province[J].Economic Geography, 2013,33(8):79-85.]
|
| [32] |
Anderson, B T, McNamara J P, Marshall H P, et al.Insights into the physical processes controlling correlations between snow distribution and terrain properties[J].Water Resources Research, 2014,50(6):4545-4563.
|
| [33] |
Beckmann M J.City hierarchies and the distribution of city size[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1958,6(3):243-248.
|
| [34] |
陈彦光.城市异速标度研究的起源、困境和复兴[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1033-1045.[Chen Yanguang.The rise, fall, and revival process of allometric scaling analysis in urban studies[J].Geographical Research, 2013,32(6):1033-1045.]
|
| [35] |
Marshall J D.Urban land area and population growth:A new scaling relationship for metropolitan expansion[J].Urban Studies, 2007,44(10):1889-1904.
|
| [36] |
Chen Jihong, Fei Yijie, Wang Zheng, et al.Allometric relationship and development potential comparison of ports in a regional cluster:A case study of ports in the Pearl River Delta in China[J].Transport Policy, 2020,85:80-90.
|
| [37] |
李郇,陈刚强,许学强.中国城市异速增长分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):399-407.[Li Xun, Chen Gangqiang, Xu Xueqiang.Urban allometric growth in China:Theory and facts[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(4):399-407.]
|
| [38] |
孙在宏,袁源,王亚华,等.基于分形理论的江苏省城市规模分布与异速生长特征[J].地理研究,2011,30(12):2163-2172.[Sun Zaihong, Yuan Yuan, Wang Yahua, et al.Research on city-size distribution and allometric growth in Jiangsu province based on fractal theory[J].Geographical Research, 2011,30(12):2163-2172.]
|
| [39] |
马玉香,张军民,王莉红.基于分形理论的新疆城市规模分布及异速生长特征研究[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(3):661-667.[Ma Yuxiang, Zhang Junmin, Wang Lihong.City-size distribution and allometric growth in Xinjiang based on fractal theory[J].Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(3):661-667.]
|
| [40] |
Elith J, Leathwick J R, Hastie T.A working guide to boosted regression trees[J].Journal of Animal Ecology, 2008,77(4):802-813.
|
| [41] |
李春林,刘淼,胡远满,等.基于增强回归树和Logistic回归的城市扩展驱动力分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(3):727-737.[Li Chunlin,Liu Miao, Hu Yuanman, et al.Driving forces analysis of urban expansion based on boosted regression trees and Logistic regression[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014,34(3):727-737.]
|
| [42] |
葛跃,王明新,孙向武,等.基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例[J].环境科学,2017,38(2):485-494.[Ge Yue,Wang Mingxin, Sun Xiangwu, et al.Variation analysis of daily PM2.5concentrations based on boosted regression tree:A case study in Changzhou[J].Environmental Science, 2017,38(2):485-494.]
|
| [43] |
张永芳.中国城市人地异速关系演变特征及其驱动因素[J].城市问题,2019,38(5):65-70.[Zhang Yongfang.The evolution characteristics and driving factors of the relationship between man and land in China[J].Urban Problems, 2019,38(5):65-70.]
|
| [44] |
尹上岗,马志飞,吴小影,等.中国城市住宅售租比时空分异格局及影响机制[J].长江流域资源与环境,2020,29(3):547-556.[Yin Shanggang, Ma Zhifei, Wu Xiaoying, et al.Spatial-temporal differentiation and influence mechanism of the urban housing price-to-ratio in China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2020,29(3):547-556.]
|
|
|
|
2022, Vol. 37 
